The traditional New Year’s table will cost the Russians much more expensive than usual. Compared to last year, the cost of a set of festive dishes will increase by at least 10-15%. The whole point is in abnormal food inflation, for which no control has been found. According to market analysts, by the last days of December, prices for products necessary for preparing Olivier salad will reach their peak values. We are talking about cucumbers, potatoes, carrots, eggs, onions.
In the usual mode, the New Year’s table rises in price by quite sane 5-7% annually. For example, at the end of 2020, Rosstat recorded a price increase of 4.5% – from 6468 to 6763 rubles. Today this dynamic is broken. According to experts, a family of 4-5 people should be ready to spend about 10-11 thousand rubles on a festive set. The calculation of its cost includes champagne, spirits, fish and meat delicacies, a conventional set for Olivier, vegetables and fruits. In principle, it is enough to look into any grocery supermarket to make sure that the picture is anomalous. In particular, the range of growth in prices for vegetables on the shelves ranges from 20% to 80%, and in a number of regions it reaches 200% compared to last year. Thus, potatoes added 52.7% in price, carrots – 32.6%.
And what about red caviar, which rose in price in October to a historical maximum – over 5 thousand rubles per kilogram? Despite the fact that its production for nine months of 2021 doubled the figure for 2020, amounting to 20.7 thousand tons. There are several reasons: general inflation, the pricing policy of fishing companies and wholesale traders, an increase in the cost of delivery and fuel and lubricants. Plus, the price of the final product will be warmed up by the pre-New Year’s excitement. Therefore, it is better to buy fish delicacies right now, given that canned foods are stored for a long time.
The situation in the domestic market continues to be destabilized by well-known force majeure circumstances from 2020. Due to the coronavirus crisis and its consequences, supplies are disrupted, contracts are broken, logistics, packaging, seeds, imported harvesting equipment and components used in the production of vegetables and other foodstuffs are becoming more expensive. Lockdowns lead to a reduction in the workforce, which is reflected in the bottom line of sowing and harvesting companies. At the same time, the level of real incomes of the population and effective demand does not increase. Gaining momentum, food inflation hits both demand and wallets at once.
“Today inflation is a screaming problem for the entire world economy: prices for goods and services have skyrocketed in the United States (where a kilogram of apples can easily be sold for three dollars), Great Britain, and key EU countries,” says Andrey Loboda, top manager for financial communications and CSR. – As for Russia, the abuse of its national currency (in the form of devaluation) by the monetary authorities does not pass without leaving a trace for domestic agricultural producers and, of course, consumers. According to experts, soft wheat varieties of the new harvest in 2021 in Russia have risen in price by 6-8% compared to last year, and hard varieties – up to 30%. “
Preparing to celebrate their favorite holiday, consumers are creatively approaching the recipe of dishes, replacing expensive ingredients with more affordable ones. Alcohol prices are growing at a very modest pace, therefore, there is definitely a snack on the New Year’s table. At the same time, few people stock up on food for future use: they really don’t want to spend money, and supply on the market seriously outstrips demand, Loboda notes.
“To stock up on food a month before the holiday is not the best option,” says Anna Bodrova, senior analyst at IAC Alpari. – Firstly, the shelf life of most of them is limited, and secondly, it is unlikely that it will be possible to save a lot. It seems that the majority of Russians will approach spending on a holiday without saving. After all, we don’t have much to celebrate. The festive table this time will be 15-20% more expensive than last year – due to an adjustment for the seasonal factor and a general increase in the price tag for everything at once. “