The year is 2022. The forthcoming talks between Russia and the United States and NATO on January 10 and 12 , on the one hand, give hope for an easing of political tensions in the world and a decrease in the risk of war. However, many foreign political scientists think differently, they predict that the situation in the world in the new year will become even more difficult.
For example, Shigesaburo Okumura, editor-in-chief of the Japanese edition of Nikkei Asia, made the following foreign policy forecast: “We can confidently expect that in 2022 China will become even stronger after Xi Jinping remains chairman of the Chinese Communist Party. The United States, on the other hand, will face serious problems. On November 8, America will hold a midterm election in which the Democrats, led by Joe Biden, are likely to suffer a painful defeat. “
According to Okumura, “when political leaders cannot solve internal problems in the country, they create the image of a ruthless and implacable external enemy.” “There is no doubt,” he said, “that Biden will decide to shift responsibility for all the problems of the Americans to Russia, accusing Vladimir Putin of authoritarianism and a threat to democracy. Also, do not forget about the risk of a new Cold War next year, this time between the United States and China. “
One of the main topics for discussion in NATO member states is the tension on the Ukrainian border. The United States has repeatedly accused Russia of preparing an invasion of Ukraine, citing as evidence only the presence of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border.
But the British political magazine The New Statesman wrote: “Putin will not declare war on Ukraine, because he understands that Russia’s protracted war with the US and NATO will weaken both sides and, moreover, destabilize the difficult political situation in Russia itself.”
Therefore, the Russian president, the article says, “will take steps to drive a wedge between Donbass and Ukraine using the techniques of hybrid warfare. But a full-fledged Russian invasion of Ukraine will never happen. “
“If we talk about problems for the whole world, the main threats in 2022 are the possible emergence of a vaccine-resistant strain of coronavirus; cyberattacks by other states or professional hacker organizations, as well as serious climate changes that can cause food shortages or power problems in several regions at once, “The New Statesman predicted.
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