In mid-July, Rosstat recorded microscopic but deflation
The statistical office made me happy. On Wednesday, Rosstat published inflation data for the week from 13 to 19 July. And there you find that average prices … have dropped. True, the reduction must be sought with a microscope. It is only 0.01%. Essentially, a statistical error. But against the background of the unrestrained rise in prices since the beginning of the year, there is already something.
Deflation in the second half of summer is not unusual. Seasonal factor. In July and August, fruits and vegetables become cheaper. And this year the high base factor is also triggered. Prices for carrots, onions and potatoes were breaking records. Now their value will return to normal values and pull the headline inflation index down.
As a reminder, since the beginning of the year, prices have increased by 4.59%. And if we take the period over the last 12 months – by 6.5%. At the same time, there are positions that have risen in price at times during this time. These are carrots, cabbage and some building materials.
As predicted by the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economic Development, this year inflation will be about 5-6%. The financial authorities very much hope that the factors pushing prices up will be temporary, and the situation on the markets will stabilize in the next year and a half. Inflation is expected to fall to a comfortable 4% next year.
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