Spread of the Omicron : British scientists predict a powerful wave of infections with the Omicron variant of COVID in a few weeks. In Britain alone, according to their gloomy forecasts, the number of deaths from coronavirus by the end of April could reach 75 thousand cases.
The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) epidemic modeling team estimates that COVID-19 deaths could range from 25,000 to 75,000 by the end of April, depending on the effectiveness of the vaccines.
According to scientists’ forecasts, if no additional restrictions are introduced, the UK could be covered by a powerful wave of Omicron coronavirus infections, the BBC reports.
Although it has been suggested that Omicron is milder than the previous variants of the coronavirus (this is indicated, in particular, by preliminary data for South Africa, where a new strain of COVID most likely appeared), experts predict a new wave of infections, with many of the infected will be hospitalized …
One of the study’s authors, Dr. Nick Davis, says Omicron is spreading very quickly – and this raises serious concerns. It is possible that by the end of the year this new variant will become dominant in England. At the same time, the number of infected in England doubles every two to three days, despite the very high level of vaccination.
Experts see several most likely scenarios for the development of events – and a lot will depend on the effectiveness of booster vaccinations.
The most optimistic scenario assumes that the Omicron variant of COVID has a low immune escape (that is, the ability to avoid detection and attack by the human immune system), and booster vaccinations are highly effective. In this case, it is predicted that in the period from December 1 to April 30 in England there will be 20.9 million infections, 175 thousand cases of hospital visits and about 25 thousand deaths.
The most pessimistic scenario with a high immune escape and low effectiveness of additional vaccinations provides for 34.2 million infections, 492 thousand cases of hospital visits and almost 75 thousand deaths.
At the same time, although scientists have laid in their forecasts the possibility of introducing severe restrictions in connection with COVID, Dr. Nick Davis suggests not rushing to make such decisions, since such restrictions, in his opinion, “in the most terrible way” can affect the moral and the physical condition of people.
“In our most optimistic scenario, the impact of Omicron in early 2022 should be mitigated by soft measures such as work from home,” the BBC quoted one of the study’s authors, Dr. Rosanna Barnard, as quoted by the BBC. “At the same time, the most pessimistic scenario suggests that tough measures may be needed to avoid an excessive burden on the health care system. Wearing masks, social distancing and booster shots are vital, but may not be enough. “
If Omicron is found to have high levels of immune escape or higher virulence than the Delta variant, extreme measures may be required to protect the healthcare system, Dr. Barnard said.
As noted by the BBC, preliminary studies based on real facts suggest that two doses of the vaccine provide limited protection against the development of Omicron symptoms, while the booster vaccine increases the level of protection against this variant of coronavirus by up to 75%.
Read Also : No need to wait 4 days for diagnosis of Omicron, the result will be found in two hours!
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