Starting next year, prices for the cheapest alcohol will jump again. In accordance with the proposal of the Ministry of Finance, the minimum cost of an alcoholic beverage should officially grow by an average of 7.5%. For example, the most affordable bottle of vodka will now cost 261 rubles. Experts admit that an increase in alcohol prices is a necessary measure to combat the “green snake”, but the current government moves will not be crowned with success: Russians will not stop drinking, and the amount of counterfeit will not decrease.
According to the bill of the Ministry of Finance, the minimum cost of vodka will increase by 18 rubles. The cheapest cognac, in turn, will rise in price from 446 to 480 rubles. Another point of the department’s proposal is to increase the minimum price of ethyl alcohol from 59 to 63 rubles per liter.
The initiative of the Ministry of Finance to increase the starting threshold of prices for alcoholic beverages and the level of the forthcoming increase are fully justified. On the eve of the New Year holidays, the state is constantly carrying out tariff modernization of the alcohol market. Usually the minimum cost is indexed to the inflation step. Since the beginning of this year, prices in our country have already risen by 8%, so that vodka will rise in price even in a “sparing” mode.
Nevertheless, the threat of a more severe correction of the cost of one of the popular alcoholic beverages still remains. In addition to the minimum cost of alcoholic drinks, excise rates on alcoholic beverages should also rise. According to the amendments to the Tax Code on gradual indexation, growth should also be determined by annual inflation. That is, theoretically, the rise in price in alcohol markets risks significantly outstripping the price conjuncture of the rest of the product line.
Nevertheless, as the chairman of the board of the International Confederation of Consumer Societies Dmitry Yanin believes, it is still premature to prepare for the prohibitive spurt in the cost of alcohol. “The increase in prices for the size of inflation does not infringe on the interests of the buyer, since it is legally confirmed. For a number of certain goods, many manufacturers will limit indexation precisely to the threshold of general price increases. Therefore, a bottle of “little white” can be found for the promised minimum cost, “the expert reassures.
At the same time, constantly raising retail prices for booze, the state, rather, elementary increases the revenue part of the treasury, but does not solve the main problems of alcohol indexation. As noted in the proposal of the Ministry of Finance, the existing “minimum prices <…> endanger the participants in the legal market.” “By increasing the official cost of an intoxicating drink, counterfeit products cannot be dealt with. Moreover, such a measure could provide bootleggers with the opportunity to raise fees for fake products, ”warns Yanin.
Another state task that officials set themselves when regulating the alcohol sector – reducing alcohol consumption – can also remain only on paper. The state constantly reports on Russia’s successful fight against the “green serpent”, but independent experts have little faith in official statistics. According to Vadim Drobiz, director of the Center for Research on Federal and Regional Alcohol Markets, today the consumption of pure alcohol in our country is about 11-12 liters per year per person. This is about the same as the Russians drank in 2009. There is another, more alarming trend in the quality of alcohol consumed. The population is switching to cheaper and stronger products. So, in 2020, vodka sales in Russia increased by 2%.
At the same time, even after price indexation, vodka will remain the most affordable strong alcoholic beverage: cognac and brandy, whose minimum price will also rise, are much more expensive. “There is a risk that after the rise in prices, many people will not be able to afford other alcoholic beverages,” Yanin said. “Some will find the strength to refuse alcoholic drinks, but many, unfortunately, will opt for 40-degree products”.
